The direct measured CO 2 contour shows eight small variations since 1857 up to 1961 which were mirrored in the atmospheric temperature graph, lagged within 5 years. Since 1857 a complete calibration line between each other of all existing methods could be verified. From the detailed analysis and verification of data, locations, methods and calibration a typical overall accuracy range of +- 1 and 3% can be concluded. [ Beck 2007]

The reconstructed direct measured CO 2 contour in northern hemisphere correlates well with the temperature in northern hemisphere (using HadCrut data 2006 : R 2 = 0,5424; correlation factor R= 0,73, Hansen 2006: R 2 = 0,6156, r = 0,784) but also to the temperature reconstructed from ice cores in Antarctica by Schneider et al. in 2006 especially in the CO 2 peak times around 1825, 1857 and 1942 [E&E comments, 2007]. In contrast the modern Mauna Loa based CO 2 contour do not fit to the temperature fluctuation since 1960 in Antarctica [Keeling et al., 2001].

Comparison with radiation

Comparison with oxygen

Comparison with longer temperature series

Comparison with ice core data

Sampling locations

Using the calculated yearly averages from Beck, 2007 in the 19 th and 20 th century an average of 321 ppm results for the 19 th century and 339 ppm for the 20 th century including the modern Mauna Loa data (Keeling, 2004). This results in a small rise of 5,3% in two centuries contradicting the 33% rise using ice core data and the Mauna Loa CO 2 data up to 2000.

Data from tropospheric measurements in balloons, aeroplanes and rockets

In total I have found 63 single samples. Since 1928 most authors had used the modern method of condensation of CO 2 in a freezing trap (liquid oxygen) (Keeling since 1955) and the volume was determined e.g. by absorbing in KOH. Measuring height was from 1 –50 km since 1897. From these 63 samples 18 yearly averages were calculated. The compilation show also a CO2 maximum since 1925 and 1940

The slide shows the CO2 contour in northern hemisphere as a 11 years moving average, analysed by chemical methods. 3 peaks are displayed around 1825, 1857 and 1942. Ice core data show a monotic rise over that period. Since 1875 to 1925 a 50 years linear rise can be seen in parrallel to the ice core records showing an about 10 ppm higher level. This is within measurement accuracy. A rise of 8,2 ppm can be deduced from the direct measured CO2 data compared to the same flat contour reconstructed from Antarctican ice cores with a rise of 11,3 ppm within the selected period since 1874 to 1921 (47 years). About 80 sampling series on continent and sea (about 20% of 138 on sea and coast) are used to exhibit this flat slope during this period.

Here I present 6 measurement locations, located near coast, on the sea, on mountains or in upper troposphere. 1 location on land is the most precise before C. Keeling at Giessen weather station by W. Kreutz 1939/41.

CO2 and sea surface temperature

>80% correlation (64N-90N, NASA GISS 2007).
Comparision of the chemically measured CO2 and the surface temperature of the northern atlantic ocean (64N-90N,NASA GISS 2007 )

The Giessen data
He conducted 64 000 measurements in 4 differnet altitudes using a high precision gas analyser invented by P Schuftan, Accuracy: 1,5%. The yearly average for 1939/40 was 385 ppm. Country air with lowest CO2 was in average 372 ppm. The seasonal amplitude was 54 ppm which was roughly 20 ppm more than the data measured at the coast of the Baltic sea at that times. Most interesting is that the about monthly variations correlate with the lunar phases (peak on full moon)

The Helsinki Background measurements 1935
The first background measurements in history; sampling data in vertical profile every 50-100m up to 1,5 km; 364 ppm underthe clouds and above

Haldane measurements at the Scottish coast
370 ppmCO2 in winds from the sea; 355 ppm in air from the land

Wattenberg measurements in the southern Atlantic ocean 1925-1927
310 sampling stations along the latitudes of the southern Atlantic oceans and parts of the northern; measuring all oceanographic data and CO2 in air over the sea; high ocean outgassing crossing the warm water currents north (>~360 ppm)

Buchs measurements in the northern Atlantic ocean 1932-1936
sampling CO2 over sea surface in northern Atlantic Ocean up to the polar circle (Greenland, Iceland, Spitsbergen, Barents Sea); measuring also high CO2 near Spitsbergen (Spitsbergen current, North Cape current) 364 ppm and CO2 over sea crossing the Atlantic from Kopenhagen to Newyork and back (Brements on a swedish island

Lundegards CO2 sampling on swedish island (Kattegatt) in summer from 1920- 1926; rising CO2 concentration (+7 ppm) in the 20s; ~328 ppm yearly average

Other sea/cCoast measurements in the 19th century by Schulzes measurements at the coast of the Baltic Sea and others.

Rising to about 400 ppm around 1942

Strong correlation of measured CO2 with sea surface temperature in northern Atlantic ocean

Using the wet chemical CO2 data an average for the 19 th century of at least 321 ppm can be calculated ignoring the systematic gas analyser error of 20-30 ppm too low by the French line of data. The average for the 20 th century using the old chemical methods up to 1961 and the modern NDIR spectroscopic method we got an average of 338 ppm. The difference is 5% beween the CO2 concentration of the last two centuries.

Detailed analysis of sampling on the sea, continent and upper troposphere and stratosphere revealed a very similar fluctuation than the atmospheric temperature in northern hemisphere, sea surface temperature (SST) in the northern Atlantic ocean and the Antarctica in the investigated period. Correlation factor to the SST (60N-90N) is 0,8. A time lag of about 5 years can be observed in the maximas laging CO2 after temperature.

A temperature rise in the Arctic surface water of about 1,7°C can be seen since 1897 up to 1937. A rise of about 66,8 ppm CO 2 in atmosphere can be observed assuming a heating of the northern Atlantic Ocean. (1°C = 39 ppm CO 2)

Callendar had also analysed about 10% of the available historical CO 2 data selecting the lowest values and omitting all data outside a +-10% bandwith. This has led to the ignorance of the 1942 CO 2 peak data.

Using accurate data sampled in maritime areas on the sea and coasts in the northern Atlantic ocean and analysing air masses a definite steady increase since about 1925 can be observed. High CO 2 concentrations of more than 350 ppm on the sea can be observed around 1926 and 1936 (Wattenberg, Buch). Well documented measurement series in central Europe( Giessen) allow selection of acceptable data showing an average of 372 ppm in 1939/40.

Since 1918 a strong warming in the northern Atlantic Ocean had happened (Arctic Warming) of about +2°C in the sea water and about +4° combined land and sea. A comprehensive data set of most important oceanographic and atmospheric CO2 and temperature in the warmed areas (hot spot near Spitsbergen) is available showing a strong correlation of the parameters in the sea water ( pH, temperature) and air concerning CO2. Correlation of CO2 over sea to temperature in air is expressed in a strong correlation factor of r = 0,91 in 1936. An outgassing of 25,2 ppm CO2 for 1°C warming of the sea can be calculated for the Spitsbergen hotspot.

Presented data and calculations indicate the great variability of CO2 in the atmosphere in space and time. From this we can conclude that the increased CO2 concentration between 1925 and 1945 was the result of the strong Arctic warming and outgassing of the sea especially in some hot spots in the Greenland, Norwegian and Barents Sea. E.g. Spitsbergen saw a more than 10°C winter warming since 1918 to 1939 as Polyakov 2004 and Bernaerts 2007 had verified.

These ocean area in the northern atlantic ocean has been located as the place where globally a strong netto absorption of CO2 by the ocean occurred. Other places are the northern ocean between Siberia and Alaska and the sea near Antarctica. If this special area is now strongly heated, absorption was lowered and CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere as could be measured at that times. Indications of a warm northern ocean comes also from the cod fish (Drinkwater 2006) distribution seen near the Greenland sea and the abundance of special plankton (Wimpenny 1944) at that times.

This is in agreement with the indication of a multidecadal influx of warm atlantic water to the arctic ocean outlined by Polyakov (2004) with a time scale of 50–80 yr (LFO= low-frequency oscillations ). The warm water influx resulted in warm airmasses. The time scale of these LFO can also be seen in the periodic fluctuations of CO 2 concentration 1857 to 1942 (85 years) and 1942 to 2005 (68 years) assuming 2005 as temperature maximum according to MSU satellite temperature data (Christy 2000, latest data 2008) using a 5 years CO2 time lag. Projecting these time scales which are similar to Gleisberg cycles to the future we can await a return to a decreasing of CO2 in about 2010 as a result of starting a cooler cycle today (2008).

Summary:

There are thousands of accurate directly measured CO2 data prior to Keeling 1958

CO2 concentration show decadal variability in time and follows climate near ground and in the vertical profil.

Ocean heating and warmer/colder ocean currents are the source of higher/ lesser atmospheric CO2 concentration

CO2 concentration is flictuation with lunar phases.

Ice core records show very low resolution and accuracy in the reconstruction of atmospheric CO2 concentration

Callendar, Keeling and IPCC have evaluated selected and biased data ignoring available literature. This has led to a biased view on the real atmospheric CO2 variation